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Total return in the call's direction across recent tracked long and short calls.
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FICO's grip on mortgage credit scoring is being challenged by a rival called VantageScore, which casts enough doubt on its ability to keep raising prices and holding market share that the author thinks the stock — down 72% and now trading around fair value — isn't yet cheap enough to buy without seeing clearer signs of how that competition plays out.
The Bear Cave is betting against Lennar because it appears to be propping up its sales numbers by offloading unsold homes to Millrose Properties, a company it spun off, which then rents those homes out at what looks like a loss — suggesting Lennar is using a financial sleight of hand to make its business look healthier than it is.
Millrose Properties, the land-banking company Lennar recently spun off, has been buying roughly $200 million worth of Lennar homes in just a month and renting them out at what appears to be a loss, leading the Bear Cave to bet against the stock on the grounds that this business model isn't financially sustainable.